Backtest note · September 2026
Mayar beat all four benchmark forecasts on 2025 operating profit.
Mayar is the forecasting model inside Hebrides. We tested it on 2,638 UK private companies with five or more years of history. Each method forecast 2025 from data to 2024, and each forecast was checked against the actual 2025 figure.
- UK private companies with 5+ years of history
- 2,638UK private companies with 5+ years of history
- benchmarks beaten on a majority of companies
- 4 of 4benchmarks beaten on a majority of companies
- average win rate across the four benchmarks
- 68.6%average win rate across the four benchmarks
- of companies where Mayar beat every benchmark
- 57.5%of companies where Mayar beat every benchmark
Win rate by benchmark
Share of companies where Mayar was directionally more accurate
Simulation · simulated outcome paths
1,955 / 2,638 74.1%
Growth drift · average growth rate
1,788 / 2,638 67.8%
Drift · average annual change
1,761 / 2,638 66.8%
Naive · last year carried forward
1,732 / 2,638 65.7%
Benchmarks beaten per company
How many of the four Mayar beat, company by company
| Beaten | Share | Companies |
|---|---|---|
| All 4 | 57.5% | n = 1,516 |
| 3 | 5.9% | n = 155 |
| 2 | 7.1% | n = 187 |
| 1 | 12.6% | n = 333 |
| None | 16.9% | n = 447 |
How the test works
Every method forecast 2025 from the same history.
- Sample
- 2,638 UK private companies with at least five years of financial history.
- Forecast
- 2025 operating profit, forecast by Mayar and by four benchmarks from the same history to 2024.
- Score
- Per company and per benchmark: a win where Mayar was directionally more accurate against the actual 2025 figure.
Limits
What this test does not show.
- One forecast year and one line item.
- The score records direction. It does not measure the size of each error.
- Mayar beat none of the four for 447 companies (16.9%).
Backtest figures describe past forecasts for one year and are not a forecast of future accuracy. Source: Mayar backtest, 30 September 2026.
How Hebrides uses forecasts in valuation is on the Valuation Suite page.
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